What began as a Russian “Special Military Operation” turned out to be the biggest military campaign in Europe since World War II. This vast military operation into the sovereign nation of Ukraine is now 30 months old. Despite Vladimir Putin’s oblique explanations for the invasion, it remains in fact a violation of international law, Article 2(4) of the UN Charter and the Helsinki Act of 1975, both of which made such an invasion a violation of the territorial integrity of a sovereign nation.

Putin’s Russia has always viewed itself as a colossal global power. Mr. Putin believed its actions, no matter how ill-conceived, were beyond reproach, at least militarily, because no nation would want to risk a global confrontation with the Russian “Bear.” In fact, he has threatened theater nuclear weapons if other nations try to get involved.

What Mr. Putin underestimated first, was the patriotic will, self-determination and resolve of this smaller nation. His next miscalculation was the resolve of free and democratic nations to support Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and general financial support, oftentimes crossing Putin’s “red lines,” which have melted away as the war goes on.

The consequences for Ukraine have been painful, to say the least. The World Bank estimates that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the war would currently stand at over $480 billion, suggesting the need for a 21st-century “Marshall Plan” to resurrect Ukraine. But this incredibly formidable nation has held its own for well over two years in spite of the dominant forces of the Russian military.

Russia, on the other hand, thought things would end quickly. According to research by the think tank RUSI, “When Vladimir Putin began his invasion, he expected to take control of Ukraine within 10 days… Since the initial attack, pain, destruction and bloodshed has been caused, with hundreds of thousands killed and millions more displaced from their homes. But it wasn’t supposed to be like this.”

While the battle ebbs and flows, the battle lines are for the most part frozen, with both sides now resorting to long-range missile and drone attacks. Yet this spunky and unyielding nation of Ukraine has now invaded a 500 square-mile section of the Russian Federation, forcing at least 133,000 civilians to evacuate. Mr. Putin has tried through propaganda to deceptively cover the effects of the war on the people of the Russian Federation, but the blinds are starting to leak in the light.

Propaganda, as a controlling agent, only works if a nation feels no pain, but dead and captured soldiers, captured towns and territories, drone attacks that are destroying military assets and devices actually hitting Moscow, pierce the veil of propaganda.

Beyond the capture of Russian territory, according to the New York Times, U.S. officials estimate that Russia’s casualties and deaths are approaching 300,000, dwarfing the Ukrainian figures which are estimated to be in the order of 190,000. Some estimates go as high as 600,000 Russian casualties and deaths. These numbers mean that most Russians either have family, relatives or know of someone in these casualty figures, suggesting growing Russian instability.

Ukraine humiliated Russia with the sinking of the “Moscva,” Russia’s guided missile cruiser and flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, followed by the successful bombing of the Kerch Bridge connecting the Russian mainland with the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea.

The Hill, a non-partisan Washington, D.C. newspaper characterized the situation this way. “President Vladimir Putin, once so firmly in control, appears shaken, sleepwalking through bland meetings he once commanded with menace and authority. Gone are the threats of nuclear escalation, the shirtless Siberian summer holidays, and the strange harangues against the West. The character transformation may reflect the accumulated psychological effects of losing a long and pointless war.”

More to the general point of Russia’s current condition, The Hill went on to say, “The Russian government is under pressure. The central bank’s key interest rate is 18% and rising, inflation is also rising, approaching 10%. Generous government payments to military families and pensioners, along with suspiciously expensive infrastructure projects and war-driven (artificially inflated) GDP growth of 3.2%, may help ease the pain, but they cannot hide the effect of tightening sanctions and the reality of dwindling central bank reserves. The war-related labor shortage in the civilian economy will surely worsen as the conflict and its demand for soldiers expand, pushing wages and prices ever higher.”

Ethnic minorities in Russia have never been stalwart supporters of the Slavic leadership in Russia and there’s evidence that these folks are getting restive. At the behest of Putin, Russia’s Eastern Orthodox Church’s separation from the Eastern Orthodox Church in Ukraine has created serious discomfort on both sides. Ever since the failed coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, Putin’s trust in the military has diminished, causing Putin to reshuffle his military leadership several times.

All this being said, this war could go on. Putin could inflict considerably more damage on Ukraine. But in his obsession to win, he could also drive Russia and its economy into an existential spiral.

The vast majority of both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have committed to unwavering support for Ukraine. U.S. and NATO policy has not only meant billions of dollars in arms and economic aid but has done so with cautious limits to try to avoid a broader conflict and the potential for nuclear expansion.

Yet, I’m continually reminded of the story of David and Goliath. This relatively small nation, attacked by this colossal giant, is defending itself with stones and slings. NATO has been refilling its bag with “stones,” but the battle is unfinished. Our continuing support is essential and if Russia escalates in armaments, the stones we supply must get bigger. But Mr. Putin, the authentic Philistine, is making a big mistake in underestimating the spirit and motivation of a nation defending its people, its sovereignty, and its culture.

The intent of the story of David and Goliath is that overcoming what seems like impossible odds is always possible, that courage and faith in what is righteous is powerful, and as improbable as the odds may seem, my instincts tell me not to bet against this dauntless David of Ukraine.

Bill Sims is a Hillsboro resident, retired president of the Denver Council on Foreign Relations, an author and runs a small farm in Berrysville with his wife. He is a former educator, executive and foundation president.